Dollar General 200 (NNS@Phoenix)

[Maxx40]

NNS YTD

+0.00 units

With Daytona in the rear view mirror its time to get to some real racing on the flat 1 mile at Phoenix. Taking a chance and putting my plays in before quals on Saturday, I'm thinking at least 2 of these lines will go against me if I wait.

MATCH-UPS

1.50 unit Kevin Harvick (-115) over Matt Kenseth
This place is just suited for Harvick. He has a 7.5 avg. last 6 starts in Cup (1st and 2nd last 2) and has started 8 of the last 10 races in this series at Phoenix and all 8 have been Top 5's. Kenseth's last NNS start here was in '09 (finished 7th) and on the Cup side it hasn't been one of his best tracks only 2 Top 10's in his last 10 starts (18.4 avg).

1.00 Regan Smith (+120) over Trevor Bayne
In my opinion this is the best full-time driver Jr. Motorsports has had. The mishap with Keselowski cost him the win last week but looking for a strong rebound today


OUTRIGHTS

Also dropping a little on both of these guys to win. Odds on Smith are ridiculous

0.50 unit Kevin Harvick (+600)
0.33 unit Regan Smith (+2500)

Good luck

 

[Maxx40]

I meant to say Smith is the best full time driver for Jr. Motorsports since Keselowski

 

[MattyMatt]

I agree with the plays and the opinion about Smith. Liked seeing him in the Hometown Phoenix Racing car last year as well. Enjoy the race.

 

[Hamilbet]

Kevin Harvick	6.50	4	1	3	108.1	8.29%
Denny Hamlin	6.50	4	1	2	105.6	9.24%
Ryan Newman	9.00	4	0	3	91.8	0.96%
Greg Biffle	10.75	4	0	2	80.8	0.00%
Brad Keselowski	11.00	4	0	2	97.0	1.35%
A.J. Allmendinger	11.00	3	0	2	92.2	0.00%
Kasey Kahne	11.25	4	1	3	97.4	1.12%
Kyle Busch	11.75	4	0	3	110.9	24.86%
Mark Martin	12.00	4	0	2	89.8	0.24%
Tony Stewart	12.75	4	0	2	107.7	18.17%
Kurt Busch	13.25	4	0	2	99.5	7.17%
Jimmie Johnson	13.25	4	0	2	95.5	5.90%

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Hamilbet]

above is since feb 2011 races at phoenix
below is since feb 2011 all flat tracks

 

[Hamilbet]

Driver	Avg Fin	Wins	Rating
Tony Stewart	9.2	1	98.4
Jeff Gordon	9.2	3	109.7
Jimmie Johnson	9.4	1	106.8
Ryan Newman	9.5	1	97.5
Kevin Harvick	10.8	1	93.4
Brad Keselowski	11.1	1	91.5
Denny Hamlin	11.6	2	106.3
Kasey Kahne	12.4	2	102.8
Greg Biffle	12.5	0	88.5
Mark Martin	13.2	0	88.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	13.8	0	89.8
Paul Menard	14.1	1	84.8

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Hamilbet]

Im leaning towards harvick and kyle. Grodon seems to do really well at flat tracks but not Phoenix

 

[Mosi]

Good luck Maxx. Thanks for posting the info Hamil.

 

[Mosi]

Didn't Gordon win here in 2011?